— Volume II No. 3: October 2006 —

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ABSTRACT:
What is a homeland security future worth creating? After enough discussion, the homeland security community could probably agree on the broad outlines of a desirable future. Eventually the community could develop a strategy for implementing that vision. But as the years passed, the vision would encounter reality. Homeland security strategy – defined as the pattern of consistent behavior over time – is both intentional and emergent. The homeland security community does a continually improving job identifying and enacting intended strategy. The community is less effective explicitly acknowledging and integrating emergent strategy. We can do better. Getting to a desirable homeland security future will be somewhat like driving at night. We know broadly what our destination could be. But we see only as far as our headlights shine, and we do not know what we will encounter on the road. This essay describes a framework that can help keep the homeland security community in between the white lines on the road to the next ten years. The article recommends a strategic process that incorporates the dynamic realities of complex adaptive systems. It asserts that recognizing and managing systemic patterns – rather than focusing on programs – would benefit homeland security.

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