Do Terrorists Win Elections?

John A. Tures

John_A_Tures

ABSTRACT:
There is an increasing belief that terrorists are “winning” elections. This myth is largely based upon results at the ballot box in Spain and America in 2004. In the case of the former, Socialists ousted the ruling Popular Party after the tragic bombings of trains on March 11. In the United States, the Republican incumbent appeared to open up a lead in a narrow race after al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden issued a cryptic videotape. But greater scrutiny of both elections may puncture the myth. Polls indicate that many Spaniards made up their minds long before the terror attacks. For those undecided before Election Day, the government's decision to blame the wrong group may have affected their votes more than the bombs themselves. As for the United States case, an analysis of a wider range of polls reveals a different story. Many in the media relied upon a single Newsweek poll, taken before many respondents even knew about the videotape. If anything, average of all the polls showed the Democratic Party challenger narrowing the gap. This article not only reveals problems with the argument that democracies can be manipulated by terrorists, but also offers some explanations for why additional pre-election “surprises” have not happened since then in Western countries.

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