Notes from the Editor (Volume XII)

August 2016 The September 2016 issue of Homeland Security Affairs features an essay which provides an historical analytical overview of terror attacks in New York City, an essay which examines the relevance of the Department of Homeland Security’s Risk Analysis and Management for Critical Asset Protection (RAMCAP) for emerging threats, and a research article which


Apples to Apples: RAMCAP and Emerging Threats to Lifeline Infrastructure

by Richard White, Randy George, Terrance Boult, and C. Edward Chow Abstract The search for a uniform risk analysis for critical infrastructure protection prompted a look at RAMCAP to see if it accommodates emerging threats from climate change, aging infrastructure, and cybersecurity. This article examines the role of Reference Scenarios in guiding RAMCAP estimations of


A History of Violence: A Quantitative Analysis of the History of Terrorism in New York City

By Matthew Quinn Abstract In a recent quantitative analysis of the past 40 years of terrorist activity in New York City, the FDNY’s Center for Terrorism and Disaster Preparedness identified several trends in terrorist activity that may have value to future policy formation, both in New York City and in similar municipalities elsewhere. This article


More Options for Quantifying Deterrence and Reducing Critical Infrastructure Risk: Cognitive Biases

By Eric F. Taquechel & Ted G. Lewis   Abstract We expand on the application of quantifiable deterrence to critical infrastructure/key resource protection by considering cognitive biases. These biases include what we call “information obfuscation bias” and “prospect bias”, the latter inspired by Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory. We show how quantifiable deterrence effectiveness and


Opportunities in Crisis and Catastrophe: The Issue-Attention Cycle and Political Reality

Christopher M. Kimrey Abstract Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. The political attention an issue does receive may or may not be sufficient to resolve the emergent problem, and in many cases may be an overreactive auto-response dictated by public opinion and issue salience. This study examines


The Ultra-Marathoners of Human Smuggling: How to Combat the Dark Networks that Can Move Terrorists over American Land Borders

Todd Bensman Abstract National legislation requires America’s homeland security agencies to disrupt transnational human smuggling organizations capable of transporting terrorist travelers to all U.S. borders. Federal agencies have responded with programs targeting extreme-distance human smuggling networks that transport higher-risk immigrants known as special interest aliens (SIAs) from some 35 “countries of interest” in the Middle


Questioning the Criticality of Critical Infrastructure: A Case Study Analysis

David Riedman Abstract The Department of Homeland Security holds the statutory mission to protect the nation’s critical infrastructure which is composed of nationally significant systems and assets. The loss of this infrastructure would result in debilitating consequences to the safety and security of the United States. Based on a meta-analysis of government policies, the current


Applying the Economic, Homeland and National Security Analysis Framework

Bijan Karimi Abstract In “Security and Prosperity: Reexamining the Relationship between Economic, Homeland and National Security” I used an analytical framework to identify key components of the Economic, Homeland and National Security relationship, explore their connection in the literature and the real world, and then identify the impact of ‘metamorphic forces’ that further shaped the


What is NORAD’s Role in Military Cyber Attack Warning?

Randall DeGering Abstract For more than fifty years, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has been responsible for conducting aerospace warning and control missions for the defense of North America. In accomplishing those operations, Commander NORAD is responsible for making the official warning to both the president of the United States and the prime minister


The Fortress Problem

Jack Sheldon Anderson Abstract Fortresses do not usually fail well. When they rely on robustness or complication, positions of strength are only tolerant of stress up to a defined point or of a certain character. For a fortification that fails to adapt, centralization—even of strength—presents a surprising liability. Fortresses concentrate risk. This paper considers the


Halting Global Pandemics via the Commercial Air Route Network

Ted G. Lewis ABSTRACT: How can a pandemic like SARS be halted in the modern age of air travel? This article argues that the classical mathematical models of epidemics are inadequate for describing the impact of air travel on the spread of contagions like SARS. Instead, the author proposes a modern model that incorporates air travel


Assessing Homeland Security Risks: A Comparative Risk Assessment of 10 Hazards

Russell Lundberg and Henry Willis ABSTRACT:  The National Academy of Sciences recommended that the Department of Homeland Security use methods of qualitative comparative risk assessment as part of its approach to strategic planning. To provide insight into how this can be done, this paper examines a set of ten homeland security risks– including natural disasters, terrorist


Surviving the ‘Storm’: Expanding Public Health’s Capabilities in Response to the Increasing Threats Posed by Novel, Pandemic Strain Viruses

Daniel P. Mackie and Anke Richter ABSTRACT:  The recent emergence of two separate outbreaks of two new viruses has generated renewed interest in the threat of pandemics. For a significant portion of the total fatalities associated with these infections the cause of death was due to an over-reaction of an infected body’s immune system. This research


Identifying Security Checkpoint Locations to Protect the Major U.S. Urban Areas

Daniel M. Watkins, Leticia Cuéllar, Deborah A. Kubicek, Erick Rodriguez, Phillip D. Stroud ABSTRACT: Transit networks are integral to the economy and to society, but at the same time they could allow terrorists to transport weapons of mass destruction into any city. Road networks are especially vulnerable, because they lack natural checkpoints unlike air networks


Book Review: A Practitioner’s Way Forward: Terrorism Analysis by David Brannan, Kristin Darken, and Anders Strindberg (Salinas, CA: Agile Press, 2014)

Reviewed by Erik J. Dahl SUGGESTED CITATION: Dahl, Erik. “Book Review: A Practitioner’s Way Forward: Terrorism Analysis” by David Brannan, Kristen Darken, and Anders Strindberg. (Salinas: Agile Press,  2014).  Homeland Security Affairs 11, Article 9 (September 2015).  https://www.hsaj.org/articles/6317 This short (141 pages) and very readable book is a good introduction to some of the most useful concepts


To Save Lives and Property: High Threat Response

Michael Marino, John Delaney, Paul Atwater, Reed Smith ABSTRACT:  The emergency services community must recognize that the world is constantly changing and adjust accordingly. It will have to be more nimble and proactive with its capabilities if it wants to prepare effectively for future threats and respond to atypical emergencies. Over the past several years,


UAS on Main Street: Policy and Enforcement at the Local Level

Alison Yakabe DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Office or the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center (NCRIC). ABSTRACT: Due to increasing system sophistication and affordability, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are becoming more popular


The Continued Relevance of the November, 2008 Mumbai Terrorist Attack: Countering New Attacks With Old Lessons

 Shahrzad Rizvi and Joshua L. Kelly ABSTRACT: The 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai was characterized by a sense of public confusion and frustration. Throughout the event, the attackers were able to avoid an operationally superior counterterrorism force and for four consecutive days managed to spread terror in India’s most populous city. One of the main


Measuring the Deterrence Value of Securing Maritime Supply Chains against WMD Transfer and Measuring Subsequent WMD Risk Reduction

Eric Taquechel, Ian Hollan, and Ted Lewis ABSTRACT:  We propose a methodology to analyze the risk of an adversary exploiting the maritime supply chain by smuggling a WMD in a container. We call this risk “WMD transfer risk”. We describe an extension of an existing modeling/simulation tool wherein we show how to quantify the deterrence


A Cautionary Note on Qualitative Risk Ranking of Homeland Security Threats

Daniel J. Rozell ABSTRACT: Qualitative risk ranking systems are often used to assess homeland security threats due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. However, their appropriate use is limited by subtle common underlying difficulties that render them inconsistent with quantitative risk assessments. A better way to assess homeland security threats is to use simple fully quantitative


Resilience Redux: Buzzword or Basis for Homeland Security

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: Since 9/11, resilience, a term used widely in many disciplines, has occupied a place in homeland security policy and programs. Peaking in importance as the last decade ended, resilience has begun to retreat as an official driver of U.S. homeland security strategy. Preparedness, which can yield resilience as one of its outcomes,


Notes from the Editor (Vol. X)

Download the full issue. June 2014 Two essays publishing this month expand the debate over the emergency response aspect of homeland security. Mac Kemp argues that emergency medical services are a vital component of homeland security and as such the role of EMS needs to be expanded. In “EMS and Homeland Security” he recommends five


Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007)

Matthew Magolan ABSTRACT: Matthew Magolan reviews the book, The Siege of Mecca, by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007) SUGGESTED CITATION: Magolan, Matthew. “Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 7 (June 2014).  https://www.hsaj.org/articles/265 The terrorist siege of the Grand Mosque at Mecca in


Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014)

Robert J. Bunker ABSTRACT: Robert J. Bunker reviews the book, Border Security, by James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg. (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014) SUGGESTED CITATION: Bunker, Robert J.. “Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 6 (June


EMS and Homeland Security

Mac Kemp ABSTRACT: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) is a vital partner in everyday emergency response and in homeland security. To date EMS has not been included in most homeland security activities and EMS needs to expand its role in this enterprise. EMS should play a greater role in disaster response, recovery, intelligence gathering, fusion centers,


Leveraging Emergency Notification Alerts

Michael Leiva ABSTRACT: This essay argues for the importance of either creating a new alert system or changing the criteria of the current Emergency Alert System. Such an alert system is critical in assisting emergency managers and law enforcement personnel with communicating safety and security concerns. To use the current system, local and state government


Preparedness Revisited: W(h)ither PPD-8?

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: The most important purpose of Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-8) on national preparedness is to establish a foundation that can be adapted to and utilized by stakeholders of all kinds and at all public and private levels. PPD-8 appeared somewhat abruptly on the scene, essentially replacing Homeland Security Policy Directive (HSPD-8), which


Hybrid Targeted Violence: Challenging Conventional “Active Shooter” Response Strategies

Tracy L. Frazzano and G. Matthew Snyder ABSTRACT: Hybrid Targeted Violence (HTV) is defined as an intentional use of force to cause physical injury or death to a specifically identified population using multifaceted conventional weapons and tactics. This article introduces the HTV concept to challenge first responders to prepare for violent “hybrid” multi-threat incidents. These


Towards a Unified Homeland Security Strategy: An Asset Vulnerability Model

Richard White ABSTRACT: The 2013 National Infrastructure Protection Plan represents the latest attempt to rectify a faltering program that has suffered from the absence of a viable risk measure. This article introduces an Asset Vulnerability Model (AVM) to overcome recognized challenges and provide strategic direction in the form of (1) baseline analysis, (2) cost-benefit analysis,

Note from the Editor: Reflections on the 15th Anniversary of 9/11

To mark the fifteenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, the Center for Homeland Defense and Security is publishing three reflective essays by distinguished affiliated practitioners and academics.  Joe Pfeifer is a graduate of the CHDS master’s degree program and is an Assistant Chief at FDNY.  Cathy Lanier is also a graduate of the CHDS master’s degree

Reflections of a Veteran Major City Police Chief

Chief Cathy Lanier, Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Department. Chief Lanier wrote the following essay as she prepares to step down after almost ten years as police chief and a distinguished 26 year career in policing. I, like many Americans, remember the horrors of September 11, 2001 as if it were yesterday.  While we all quickly realized the enormity

A Director of the Present? Nowcasting Homeland Security’s Challenges

Rodrigo Nieto-Gomez, PhD; Research Professor, Naval Postgraduate School. Dr. Nieto-Gomez is a strategist and futurist focused on the consequences of the accelerating pace of change in homeland security and policing environments. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld got in trouble in 2002, when he said this to justify the U.S. intervention in Iraq: “Reports that say that

Ethics on the Fly: Toward a Drone-Specific Code of Conduct for Law Enforcement

Brian Smith EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   This thesis examines the issue of law enforcement’s use of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) from an ethical perspective. It describes ethics as rules governing individual conduct that are functionally specific, relating to the role one plays in society. The role police play in U.S. communities and the ethical frameworks they

Winning the War at Home: Stability Operations Strategy for Homeland Security

Joshua Shaughnessy EXECUTIVE SUMMARY State and local jurisdictions have been challenged to develop comprehensive homeland security strategies. While progress has been made since 9/​11, many improvements have centered on disaster prevention and response. Other areas of homeland security lack consensus in methodology, and leaders employ a wide variety of methods to protect citizens. Perhaps homeland

Beyond Sister City Agreements: Exploring the Challenges to Full International Interoperability

Calvin Shanks EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Border communities are often interconnected by more than simple proximity. They are connected through social networks, economies, cultures, and by shared natural resources. The more closely connected the communities are, the more likely they are to be mutually impacted by a significant emergency event. In a metroplex region where commercial trade

Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Emergency Management: A Guide for Policy Makers and Practitioners

Darren Price EXECUTIVE SUMMARY You don’t concentrate on risks. You concentrate on results. No risk is too great to prevent the necessary job from getting done. Brigadier General Chuck Yeager, U.S. Air Force, Pilot Emergency management is at a crossroads as it pertains to unmanned aircraft systems (UASs). Disasters provide an environment that is conducive

Becoming More Than a Digital Bullhorn: Two-Way Engagement on Twitter for Law Enforcement

Zachary Perron EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Law enforcement social media use is a hot topic among today’s police chiefs and sheriffs. With the amount of public attention focused on police agencies in contemporary society, the way agencies choose to communicate and interact with their communities is critically important. Social media factored heavily in the police response to

Saving the Savable:Using Bystanders to Increase Survival From Out of Hospital Cardiac Arrest (OHCA) in New York City

Frank Leeb EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   For most EMS systems, arriving in less than four minutes at the side of a patient whose arrest resulted in a 911 call is nearly impossible. —John Freese, FDNY Office of Medical Affairs   Every year in America, thousands of people needlessly die following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). These fatalities

Not Out of Control: Analysis of the Federal Disaster Spending Trend

Suzanne Boccia EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The amount of money the federal government spends each year on disasters is not fully known. No federal agency has a requirement to track all federal disbursements for major disaster declarations among the numerous recipients of budgeted funds and emergency supplemental spending bills. Notwithstanding, federal policymakers and watchdog groups have issued

Assessing The Cannibis Legalization Debate: Lessons Learned from The Colorado and Washington Experiment

Mike Neener EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   The cannabis legalization debate has long been a contentious issue in the United States (U.S.) and throughout the world. Since 1914, cannabis has been regarded as morally reprehensible and an overall detractor from society because of negative health effects, lack of medical acceptance, and high propensity for abuse. Cannabis is

Upping the Emergency Management Ante: The Role of Private Sector Collaboration in Emergency Management and Whether State Procurement and Emergency Management Laws Are Built to Collaborate

Monica Manzella EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   A robust emergency preparedness plan is necessary for an effective and successful emergency response and recovery effort following a disaster or emergency event, whether natural or man-made. The public sector has long recognized the importance of interstate and intrastate collaborative relationships to supply the necessary goods, resources and services when

Crowds As Complex Adaptive Systems: Strategic Implications for Law Enforcement

Robert Leverone EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The manner in which law enforcement responds to crowd control issues has changed over the years. From escalated force models to models emphasizing negotiations with crowds, the field of crowd control continues to evolve. Much of this evolution is due to increased public scrutiny of law enforcement tactics following widely publicized

A Different Shade of Blue: An Evaluation of the Civilian Detective Concept and Its Impact on Police Capabilities

David Green EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   As homeland security has evolved, police roles have expanded to encompass a wider array of responsibilities. Meeting these responsibilities in austere fiscal environments, however, has become increasingly difficult for cities in financial distress. Rather than expanding, many cities have reduced capabilities by cutting large segments of their police personnel. This

Suicide in the Fire Service: Saving the Lives of Firefighters

Steven Heitman EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   Firefighters play an essential role in the Department of Homeland Security’s mission to respond to and recover from emergencies and disasters. In order to bear the responsibilities of this role, firefighters must meet high standards of preparedness both physically and mentally. As time in this mission wears on, the diagnosis

Shadows of Stuxnet: Recommendaions for U.S. Policy on Critical Infrastructure Cyber Defense Derived from The Stuxnet Attack

Ronald Lendvay EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Cyber security for critical infrastructures (Cis) ranks among the highest United States (U.S.) national security priorities. The national well-being and the fabric of American’s daily lives rely upon the security and resiliency of CIs. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) refers to (CI) as the, “backbone of our nation’s economy, security

Flight Plight: An Examination of Contemporary Humanitarian Immigration from Honduras, Cuba and Syria to the United States with Considerations for National Security

Catherine Ventura EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Immigration has always been a major component of the United States’ national strategy. Humanitarian immigration refers to programs specifically designed to assist refugees, asylum-seekers and other populations of forced migrants. The United States has historically taken pride in the values represented by its humanitarian immigration programs. However, the programs that address