The Journal of the NPS Center for Homeland Defense and Security

Volume XI - 2015


Volume X - 2014




Notes from the Editor (Volume XI)

This month Homeland Security Affairs is publishing a research article examining the threat posed by unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) and current policy responses to that threat. Also included in this month’s issue is an essay examining the need for a new integrated response paradigm for fire services and law enforcement in dealing with active shooter […]

To Save Lives and Property: High Threat Response

Michael Marino, John Delaney, Paul Atwater, Reed Smith ABSTRACT:  The emergency services community must recognize that the world is constantly changing and adjust accordingly. It will have to be more nimble and proactive with its capabilities if it wants to prepare effectively for future threats and respond to atypical emergencies. Over the past several years, […]

UAS on Main Street: Policy and Enforcement at the Local Level

Alison Yakabe DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Office or the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center (NCRIC). ABSTRACT: Due to increasing system sophistication and affordability, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are becoming more popular […]

The Continued Relevance of the November, 2008 Mumbai Terrorist Attack: Countering New Attacks With Old Lessons

 Shahrzad Rizvi and Joshua L. Kelly ABSTRACT: The 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai was characterized by a sense of public confusion and frustration. Throughout the event, the attackers were able to avoid an operationally superior counterterrorism force and for four consecutive days managed to spread terror in India’s most populous city. One of the main […]

Measuring the Deterrence Value of Securing Maritime Supply Chains against WMD Transfer and Measuring Subsequent WMD Risk Reduction

Eric Taquechel, Ian Hollan, and Ted Lewis ABSTRACT:  We propose a methodology to analyze the risk of an adversary exploiting the maritime supply chain by smuggling a WMD in a container. We call this risk “WMD transfer risk”. We describe an extension of an existing modeling/simulation tool wherein we show how to quantify the deterrence […]

A Cautionary Note on Qualitative Risk Ranking of Homeland Security Threats

Daniel J. Rozell ABSTRACT: Qualitative risk ranking systems are often used to assess homeland security threats due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. However, their appropriate use is limited by subtle common underlying difficulties that render them inconsistent with quantitative risk assessments. A better way to assess homeland security threats is to use simple fully quantitative […]

Resilience Redux: Buzzword or Basis for Homeland Security

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: Since 9/11, resilience, a term used widely in many disciplines, has occupied a place in homeland security policy and programs. Peaking in importance as the last decade ended, resilience has begun to retreat as an official driver of U.S. homeland security strategy. Preparedness, which can yield resilience as one of its outcomes, […]

Notes from the Editor (Vol. X)

June 2014 Two essays publishing this month expand the debate over the emergency response aspect of homeland security. Mac Kemp argues that emergency medical services are a vital component of homeland security and as such the role of EMS needs to be expanded. In “EMS and Homeland Security” he recommends five ways in which EMS […]

Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007)

Matthew Magolan ABSTRACT: Matthew Magolan reviews the book, The Siege of Mecca, by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007) SUGGESTED CITATION: Magolan, Matthew. “Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 7 (June 2014). The terrorist siege of the Grand Mosque at Mecca in […]

Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014)

Robert J. Bunker ABSTRACT: Robert J. Bunker reviews the book, Border Security, by James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg. (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014) SUGGESTED CITATION: Bunker, Robert J.. “Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 6 (June […]

EMS and Homeland Security

Mac Kemp ABSTRACT: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) is a vital partner in everyday emergency response and in homeland security. To date EMS has not been included in most homeland security activities and EMS needs to expand its role in this enterprise. EMS should play a greater role in disaster response, recovery, intelligence gathering, fusion centers, […]

Leveraging Emergency Notification Alerts

Michael Leiva ABSTRACT: This essay argues for the importance of either creating a new alert system or changing the criteria of the current Emergency Alert System. Such an alert system is critical in assisting emergency managers and law enforcement personnel with communicating safety and security concerns. To use the current system, local and state government […]

Preparedness Revisited: W(h)ither PPD-8?

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: The most important purpose of Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-8) on national preparedness is to establish a foundation that can be adapted to and utilized by stakeholders of all kinds and at all public and private levels. PPD-8 appeared somewhat abruptly on the scene, essentially replacing Homeland Security Policy Directive (HSPD-8), which […]

Hybrid Targeted Violence: Challenging Conventional “Active Shooter” Response Strategies

Tracy L. Frazzano and G. Matthew Snyder ABSTRACT: Hybrid Targeted Violence (HTV) is defined as an intentional use of force to cause physical injury or death to a specifically identified population using multifaceted conventional weapons and tactics. This article introduces the HTV concept to challenge first responders to prepare for violent “hybrid” multi-threat incidents. These […]

Towards a Unified Homeland Security Strategy: An Asset Vulnerability Model

Richard White ABSTRACT: The 2013 National Infrastructure Protection Plan represents the latest attempt to rectify a faltering program that has suffered from the absence of a viable risk measure. This article introduces an Asset Vulnerability Model (AVM) to overcome recognized challenges and provide strategic direction in the form of (1) baseline analysis, (2) cost-benefit analysis, […]

Web Tutorial: Risk Methods and Models

Dr. Ted Lewis gives a Web Tutorial on Risk Methods and Models.  See the entire Tutorial or first watch the introduction.

Preempting Mass Murder: Improving Law Enforcement Risk Assessments of Persons with Mental Illness

John D. Milby EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Law enforcement officers are regularly called upon to respond to assist mentally ill persons in crisis; some experts estimate that as many as 20 percent of all law enforcement calls for service involve persons with a mental illness.1 In the majority of communities across the country, law enforcement is the […]

Reducing Homeland Insecurities: Ending Abuse of the Asylum and Credible Fear Program

Anja Freudenthal EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the summer of 2012, a major shift began in the number of undocumented individuals crossing from the Mexican border into the United States. While the number of individuals apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (hereafter referred to simply as CBP) and detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (hereafter […]

Strategic Improvements to TSA SPOT Program

Brent A. Cotton EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) Screening Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) program is under intense scrutiny by Congress, and in danger of losing funding. Recent reports by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) have identified several areas for operational […]

Airmanship on the Ground: How the Aviation Industry Can Fundamentally Change The Way First Responders Manage Complex Emergencies

  Ryan Fields-Spack EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Problem Statement/Topic In general, police and fire departments face three types of emergencies today. Two types encompass the normal “everyday” emergency. These are emergencies where either police are in charge or those where fire officers are in charge. However, there are emergencies that manifest themselves in a wholly different manner—the […]

Systems Fragility: The Sociology of Chaos

Lori Hodges EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last decade, the United States alone has averaged at least one large-scale crisis or extreme event per year. In this environment of complex disasters, we see differences in how communities respond and recover. In some of these disasters, the community bands together and recovers faster and to be stronger […]

Winning the Hearts and Minds: Improving U.S. Counter-Radicalization Efforts Through a Study of The United Kingdom’s PREVENT program

Romeo B. Lavarias EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Warfare in the 21st century has matured to the point where military technology and force are no longer the keys to victory. Parties in conflict during the twentieth century had begun to realize that success in war meant winning the “hearts and minds” of the people and, to an extent, […]

A Tribute to Alis Gumbiner

This volume of Homeland Security Affairs and the Journal’s new online format is dedicated to its long-time managing editor Alis Gumbiner.  This past fall, Alis stepped down after nine years at the helm.  Alis was instrumental in the Journal’s early years in taking the initial vision and making it a reality.  She worked her magic […]

Community Oriented Counterterrorism: Incorporating National Homeland Security Mandates into the Local Community Policing Philosophy

Kenith Roland Adcox EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For over three decades, community policing has proven itself to be an effective tool to address crime and disorder within local communities.[1] Since 9/11, however, many local police agencies have been chipping away at community policing programs in order to meet new homeland security responsibilities. The concern is that sidestepping […]

People First Homeland Security: Recalibrating for Community Collaboration & Engagement within a Homeland Security Ecosystem

Angela Yvonne English EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the creation of a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2002, the practice of homeland security has been constructed around a top-down system, reactive in nature, based primarily on responding to terrorist acts and natural disasters. When security becomes a reactive enterprise, pursued only after threats become manifest, the […]

Silent Warning: Understanding the National Terrorism Advisory System

Roy B. Brush EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Terrorism warning systems provide warnings for internal (organizational or for official decision makers) and external (other partner organizations or the public) categories of constituents. They must support resolution of the decision maker’s dilemma and balance between the need to warn people in danger from terrorism with the need to maintain […]

TSA Behavior Detection: Changing with the Times

Brent A. Cotton EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) Screening Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) program is under intense scrutiny by Congress, and in danger of losing funding. Recent reports by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) have identified several areas for operational […]

The Major Crimes Task Force-Afghanistan: A Case Study and Examination of Implications for Future FBI Capacity Building Programs

Stephen A. Cyrus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CURRENT PROBLEM SPACE The threat to the United States (U.S.) homeland and U.S. interests abroad posed by international terrorism has changed dramatically since the United States started its global war on terror (GWOT) in response to the attacks of September 11, 2001. While U.S. and international efforts in support […]

Florida Law Enforcement’s Role in Agroterrorism

Benjamin E. Burns EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The food and agriculture sector is one of the United States’ most important critical infrastructures, with agriculture and agribusiness related industries employing over 16 million Americans and representing 4.8 percent of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product according to the United States Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Agriculture is a […]

Leading Preparedness for Local Fire Agencies

Steven R. Goble EXECUTIVE SUMMARY President Barack Obama directed the development of a national preparedness strategy that is set out in Presidential Policy Directive 8: National Preparedness (PPD-8). The applicability of PPD-8 and the implementing strategies for fire agencies is in question; and the relevance and benefits of the guidance are ambiguous. If the guidance […]

Barriers to Cyber Information Sharing

Deanne I. Harwood EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Society is increasingly dependent upon the Internet and the systems delivered through it. These systems help ensure that they deliver and maintain essential services in the face of attacks, failures, and accidents. Our critical infrastructure sector is reliant on networked environments for its daily operation. It is these systems that […]

Analysis of C3 Counterinsurgency Inspired Policing, and the Flip Side of the COIN

Bruce Hiorns EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction As a result of its drugs- and gang-related violence, in 2011, the city of Springfield, Massachusetts was ranked the twelfth most violent city in the United States, according to data gathered from the Uniform Crime Report of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). [1]  The rise in violence followed the […]

The National Network of Fusion Centers: Perception and Reality

Nicholas Klem EXECUTIVE SUMMARY State and major urban area fusion centers became one of the many organizational innovations to the United States’ national security arsenal after the attacks on 9/11. These entities were designed to aid the nation in combating terrorism through analysis, operations, and information sharing. Many of these fusion centers have evolved over […]

Prison Radicalization in County Jails: Disrupting Terrorist Acts Through Information Sharing

Douglas R. Lee EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Radicalization, the process by which Westerners embrace the teachings of the radical Islam, is of great concern to United States (U.S.) officials. The motivations for radicalization vary, but experts agree that prison environments are conducive for such a conversion of ideology. A number of former prisoners who radicalized while incarcerated […]

Using Automatic Identification System Technology to Improve Maritime Border Security

Tedric R. Lindstrom EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Our coastal waters are the United States’ most open and vulnerable borders. This vast maritime domain harbors critical threats from terrorism, criminal activities, and natural disasters. The maritime border security mission is complex and challenging; the maritime domain is an expansive pathway to the world without fences that connects to […]

Closing the Cyber Gap: Integrating cross-government cyber capabilities to support the DHS cyber security mission

Edward W. Lowery Since the initial development of the Internet as an information-sharing platform, the cyber world has grown exponentially and become intertwined with almost every facet of our daily activities, commerce, and governmental operations. But, increasingly, the opportunities offered by the cyber world have resulted in rapidly increasing threats to our citizens, businesses and […]

The Integration of Counter-terrorism into the DNA of American Policing

John A. O’Kleasky, Jr. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the 13 years since September 11, 2001 (9/11), it is unknown to what extent counterterrorism (CT) has been fully embraced by local law enforcement (LE). This question is not easy to answer, as it is not easily quantifiable; this level of LE is comprised of nearly 18,000 individual […]

Risk, Politics, and Money: Need for A Value-Based Model for Financing Public Health Preparedness

William F. Pilkington EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This research pointed to significant problems in the public health preparedness system for which there are no easy solutions. Budgets are extremely tight and staffs are strained. Most of the public health preparedness funding comes from one federal grant (PHEP) that has been declining every year for the last seven […]

Groupthink: A Significant Threat to the Homeland Security of the United States

James E. Ricciuti EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The groupthink psychological phenomenon widespread throughout the homeland security enterprise is a significant threat to the national security of the United States (U.S.). Nevertheless, the existence of groupthink and its influence on homeland security has not been thoroughly studied or evaluated. To counter the ever-evolving threats to the nation, the […]