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Volume XV Notes from the Editor

The December 2019 issue of Homeland Security Affairs features a research article proposing a new paradigm for dealing with transnational criminal organizations (TCOs), an essay reviewing an important new book on catastrophic hurricane response, a research article which provides a premortem analysis of the security threats posed by climate change, and an essay reviewing a

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Lines, Flows and Transnational Crime: Toward a Revised Approach to Countering the Underworld of Globalization

By Alan Bersin and Lars Karlsson Abstract This article proposes a “paradigm shift” in the means and methods of combating transnational criminal activity. It contends that global illicit flows, engineered by organized crime on a massive scale alongside lawful trade and travel, represent a principal challenge to public safety and civic order. It proposes further

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Book Review: Out of the Whirlwind; Supply and Demand After Hurricane Maria by Philip J. Palin

By Kristopher Thornburg Suggested Citation Thornburg, Kristopher. Review of Out of the Whirlwind: Supply and Demand After Hurricane Maria, by Philip Palin. Homeland Security Affairs 15, Article 7. www.hsaj.org/articles/15492 The 2017 hurricane season left wide swaths of destruction across parts of the southern United States. Puerto Rico was hit the hardest, beginning with a glancing

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Climate Security: A Pre-Mortem Approach to a Sustainable Global Future

By John Comiskey and Michael Larrañaga Abstract Climate change is a viable threat to U.S. homeland security and is likely the most significant risk facing humanity. A consensus of the scientific community concludes that climate change is occurring, is relatively irreversible, and that aggressive mitigation of climate-change drivers is necessary. Climate-change impacts include surface-air temperature

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Book Review: How to Think About Homeland Security: The Imperfect Intersection of National Security and Public Safety by David H. McIntyre

by Caleb S. Cage Suggested Citation Cage, Caleb. (2019) Review of How to Think about Homeland Security: The Imperfect Intersection of National Security and Public Safety by David H. McIntyre. Homeland Security Affairs 15, Article 9. https://www.hsaj.org/articles/15587. Since its relatively recent establishment, homeland security as an organizing concept for government services has received its share

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Capability Gaps Threatening CBP’s Present and Future Operations

By Thomas P.M. Barnett Abstract Thanks to an enduring burst of domestic populism, the United States is knee-deep in a tumultuous renegotiation of its superpower relationship with the world. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) faces two possible paths: transformation or trivialization. The agency either embraces the mission-creep demanded by this moment or surrenders responsibility to

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Book Review: Spying: Assessing US Domestic Intelligence Since 9/11 By Darren E. Tromblay

By Erik Dahl Suggested Citation Dahl, Erik. (2019) Review of Spying: Assessing US Domestic Intelligence Since 9/11 by Darren E. Tromblay. Homeland Security Affairs 15, Article 4. https://www.hsaj.org/articles/15391  . This book is a welcome addition to the rather small literature on domestic and homeland intelligence in the United States. It will interest more than just

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How to Learn About Homeland Security

By Christopher Bellavita Abstract The article describes how one can begin to learn about homeland security. Starting with institutionally approved, rather than objectively-tested and validated, foundational knowledge may provide academic order, but the order is achieved at the cost of constraining prematurely what homeland security could become. The method presented in this essay starts with

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How FEMA Could Lose America’s Next Great War

Si Vis Pacem, Para Bellum (If You Want Peace, Prepare for War) By H. Quinton Lucie Abstract The United States lacks a comprehensive strategy and supporting programs to support and defend the population of the United States during times of war and to mobilize, sustain and expand its defense industrial base while under attack from

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Incentivizing Cyber Security Investment in the Power Sector Using An Extended Cyber Insurance Framework

By Jack Rosson, Mason Rice, Juan Lopez, and David Fass Abstract Collaboration between the DHS Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and public- sector partners has revealed that a dearth of cyber- incident data combined with the unpredictability of cyber attacks have contributed to a shortfall in first-party cyber insurance protection in the critical infrastructure

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Defending Cities Against Nuclear Terrorism: Analysis of A Radiation Detector Network for Ground Based Traffic

By Edward Cazalas Abstract This article describes a specific, promising concept for a traffic-based radiation detector network concept deployed on roads/highways/stoplights/etc. The detector network concept is intended to help defend urban areas against nuclear attack by adversaries. The network has two potential functions: to detect and localize the covert transport of nuclear materials or weapons

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Causes & Explanations of Suicide Terrorism: A Systematic Review

By Vanessa Harmon, Edin Mujkic, Catherine Kaukinen, & Henriikka Weir Abstract The frequency of suicide terrorist attacks has increased dramatically since the year 2000, creating a renewed interest in this area of study, as well as an increase in the importance of understanding individual and organizational motivations behind engagement in suicide terrorism. The following is

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Risk-Based Performance Metrics for Critical Infrastructure Protection? A Framework for Research and Analysis

By Eric F. Taquechel & Marina Saitgalina   Abstract Measuring things that do not occur, such as “deterred” or “prevented” terrorist attacks, can be difficult. Efforts to establish meaningful risk-based performance metrics and performance evaluation frameworks based on such metrics, for government agencies with counterterrorism missions, are arguably in a nascent state. However, by studying

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Learning From H.I.M. (Harvey, Irma, Maria): Preliminary Impressions for Supply Chain Resilience

By Phillip J. Palin [The observations and analysis offered reflect the author’s best judgment as of late 2017. The essay is intended to encourage more detailed research and deeper consideration.] Abstract The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season challenged critical infrastructure and key resources across a wide area. Harvey, Irma, and Maria each exposed different aspects of

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Operator Driven Policy: Deriving Action From Data Using The Quadrant Enabled Delphi (QED) Method

By Lilian Alessa, Sean Moon, David Griffith & Andrew Kliskey   Abstract To close the gap in operator-driven policy for the homeland security enterprise, we argue for a bottom-up policy process that acknowledges operator knowledge and opinions. We propose a practical approach to enable policy-makers to incorporate operator knowledge and experience, or operator driven policy

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SCADA Fusion With Commercial Fission

by Matthew Horner Abstract Nuclear power plants rely on digital components, like supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) devices, to perform daily operations. These devices can contain software vulnerabilities. To address SCADA and other cyber threats, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has issued directives for licensed operators to submit cybersecurity plans for their facilities.

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Book Review: Illusions of Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism by Richard English

reviewed by Scott Romaniuk Suggested Citation Romaniuk, Scott. “Book Review: Illusions of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism by Richard English (Ed.). (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015). 174pp., £40.00 (h/b), ISBN 9780197265901.” Homeland Security Affairs 14, Article 5 (April 2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14313   Terrorism, counter-terrorism, and their intersection have produced painful experiences for peoples and communities in many societies.

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Defected from ISIS or Simply Returned, and for How Long?– Challenges for the West in Dealing with Returning Foreign Fighters

by Anne Speckhard, PhD., Ardian Shajkovci, PhD., & Ahmet S. Yayla, PhD. Abstract Many of the 38,000 foreign fighters ISIS has managed to attract to Syria and Iraq will return home. As increasing numbers of ISIS cadres flee the battlefield, some as defectors and others as returnees still aligned with ISIS’ goals and ideology, the challenges

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Improving Maritime Transportation Security in Response to Industry Consolidation

by Nick Monacelli   Abstract Containerized cargo is the single largest security vulnerability in maritime shipping. Recent consolidation in the maritime shipping industry, along with freefalling shipping rates and increased vessel sizes, combine to cause concern for the future of containerized shipping security. Maintaining security in the maritime shipping industry is critical. Programs including the

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Book Review: Preventing and Countering Extremism and Terrorist Recruitment: A Best Practice Guide by Hanif Qadir

reviewed by Caitlin Ambrozik   Suggested Citation Ambrozik, Caitlin. “Book Review: Preventing and Countering Extremism and Terrorist Recruitment: A Best Practice Guide by Hanif Qadir (Melton, Woodbridge: John Catt Educational Ltd, 2016).” Homeland Security Affairs 14, Article 3 (January 2018). https://www.hsaj.org/articles/14267         A parent logs into a child’s computer and a chat

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Cyber Border Security – Defining and Defending a National Cyber Border

by Phillip Osborn Abstract Concerns stemming from the convergence of border and cyber security threats are nothing new to those involved in both disciplines. Criminals and foreign actors have been exploiting computers and cyber methods to circumvent physical border security for decades. Today nearly every crime or homeland security threat that once required some physical

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Applying an Organizational Framework to Examine Jihadi Organizations as an Industry

by Michael Logan, Gina Ligon, and Douglas Derrick Abstract The Leadership of the Extreme and Dangerous for Innovative Results (LEADIR) project, funded by The Department of Homeland Security, Science and Technology Directorate, Office of University Programs (DHS S&T OUP) since 2010, uses an industrial and organizational psychology approach to assess the characteristics of violent extremist

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Incorporating Prioritization in Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience Programs

by Duane Verner, Frederic Petit, and Kibaek Kim Abstract Protecting critical infrastructure, especially in a complex urban area or region, should focus on identifying and prioritizing potential failure points that would have the most severe consequences. Such prioritization can inform targeted planning and investment decisions, such as what infrastructure should be hardened or relocated first

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A Right-Brained Approach to Critical Infrastructure Protection Theory in support of Strategy and Education: Deterrence, Networks, Resilience, and “Antifragility”

By Eric F. Taquechel and Ted G. Lewis Abstract How is the theory behind critical infrastructure/key resources (CIKR) protection evolving? Practitioners who implement strategies should be confident their strategies are based on sound theory, but theory evolves just as strategy evolves. Many theories, techniques, and models/simulations for CIKR protection have been proposed and developed over

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The Roots of Community Resilience: A Comparative Analysis of Structural Change in Four Gulf Coast Hurricane Response Networks

by Thomas W. Haase, Gunes Ertan, and Louise K. Comfort Abstract Despite the emphasis on resilience, disasters continue to challenge the response capacities of communities around the United States. These challenges are generated by the complexities and uncertainties present in the post-disaster environment. This article presents the findings of an exploratory investigation into the development

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Unpacking and Exploring the Relationship between Crisis Management and Social Media in the Era of ‘Smart Devices’

by Eric K. Stern Abstract The rise of social media and the broad diffusion of ‘smart devices’ in contemporary society have profound implications for crisis management. The emergence of social media and smart devices pose both major challenges and major opportunities to crisis managers (c.f. Palen, 2008; Veil et 2011). These social practices and technologies

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The Cold War on Terrorism: Reevaluating Critical Infrastructure Facilities as Targets for Terrorist Attacks

by David Riedman Portions of this article are excerpted from the author’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security master’s degree thesis “How Critical is Critical Infrastructure?” The full document is available in the Homeland Security Digital Library.1 Countries are inverted pyramids that rest precariously on their strategic innards–their leadership, communications, key production, infrastructure, and population.

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Cognitive Defense: Influencing the Target Choices of Less Sophisticated Threat Actors

by Jesse Wasson & Christopher Bluesteen Abstract With the emergence of non-state threats and new operating environments since the end of the Cold War, the relevance of deterrence as a security tool has repeatedly been called into doubt. Modern adversaries often lack territory, militaries, economies, or even identities to threaten and retaliate against. Their motivations are

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Coordination in Crises: Implementation of the National Incident Management System by Surface Transportation Agencies

by Nicholas B. Hambridge, Arnold M. Howitt, & David W. Giles Abstract For more than a decade, the National Incident Management System (NIMS) has served in the United States as the mandated framework for coordinated organization, operational command, and implementation of response to emergencies nationwide. This article examines whether surface transportation agencies are developing the capabilities

When Green and Blue Collide: The Relative Superiority Theory and Law Enforcement Incidents

Harley LenArt EXECUTIVE SUMMARY We sleep safe in our beds because rough men [and women] stand ready in the night to visit violence on those who would do us harm. ~ George Orwell In “21st Century Firearms Training,” David Griffith claims, “Criminals are getting smarter, faster, and more deadly than ever before.” When criminals are

Unsuspected: The U.S. Military’s Unintended Contribution to Outlaw Motorcycle Gangs

Nicholas King EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Many active-duty U.S. military members and veterans (MIL/VETs) are members of outlaw motorcycle gangs (OMGs), which have documented histories of violence and criminal activity. While MIL/VETs adopt the protocols of OMG culture in the pursuit of a positive social identity, unfortunately, many have arrests for their participation in OMG-related criminal activity.