Note from the Editorial Committee

From the Editorial Committee: “Critical Infrastructure Protection: Can We Defend Against Terrorism”  has been removed from the site. It contained derivative sections inadequately credited to previously published work.  


Volume XIII Notes from the Editor

The April 2017 Issue contains an essay which explores new approaches to non-strategic deterrence of terrorist attacks based on cognitive psychology and behavioral economics, and a research article which examines the extent to which the National Incident Management System has been successfully implemented by transportation agencies. In “Cognitive Defense: Influencing the Target Choices of Less Sophisticated Threat


Cognitive Defense: Influencing the Target Choices of Less Sophisticated Threat Actors

by Jesse Wasson & Christopher Bluesteen Abstract With the emergence of non-state threats and new operating environments since the end of the Cold War, the relevance of deterrence as a security tool has repeatedly been called into doubt. Modern adversaries often lack territory, militaries, economies, or even identities to threaten and retaliate against. Their motivations are


Coordination in Crises: Implementation of the National Incident Management System by Surface Transportation Agencies

by Nicholas B. Hambridge, Arnold M. Howitt, & David W. Giles Abstract For more than a decade, the National Incident Management System (NIMS) has served in the United States as the mandated framework for coordinated organization, operational command, and implementation of response to emergencies nationwide. This article examines whether surface transportation agencies are developing the capabilities


What Comes Around, Goes Around (and Around and Around): Reviving the Lost History of FEMA and its Importance to Future Disasters

by H. Quinton Lucie Abstract The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) lacks a coherent historical record. Often this results in the agency repeating the mistakes of its past. By creating a comprehensive public record of FEMA and national emergency management efforts over the last half century, FEMA can break its cycle of repeating past failures and


When Guns and Drugs are Democratized: Potential Technical Solutions to Counter the Negative Consequences of Three Dimensional Printing

by Jonathan Percy Abstract 3-D printer technology will have negative consequences in the form of weapons that cannot be traced, illicit drug manufacture, sabotage, and intellectual property theft. This article poses the following questions. How will society be affected by these changes? How will border security organizations accomplish their missions when illicit guns and drugs no longer


Tiered Response Pyramid: A System-Wide Approach to Build Response Capability and Surge Capacity

by Joseph W. Pfeifer and Ophelia Roman Abstract Today’s expanding disaster landscape demands crisis managers to configure their organizations to handle a wider range of extreme events. This requires more varied capabilities, capacity and delivery of services. The article proposes that crisis managers must move away from organization-centered planning to a system-wide approach for preparedness.


Apples to Apples: RAMCAP and Emerging Threats to Lifeline Infrastructure

by Richard White, Randy George, Terrance Boult, and C. Edward Chow Abstract The search for a uniform risk analysis for critical infrastructure protection prompted a look at RAMCAP to see if it accommodates emerging threats from climate change, aging infrastructure, and cybersecurity. This article examines the role of Reference Scenarios in guiding RAMCAP estimations of


A History of Violence: A Quantitative Analysis of the History of Terrorism in New York City

By Matthew Quinn Abstract In a recent quantitative analysis of the past 40 years of terrorist activity in New York City, the FDNY’s Center for Terrorism and Disaster Preparedness identified several trends in terrorist activity that may have value to future policy formation, both in New York City and in similar municipalities elsewhere. This article


More Options for Quantifying Deterrence and Reducing Critical Infrastructure Risk: Cognitive Biases

By Eric F. Taquechel & Ted G. Lewis Abstract We expand on the application of quantifiable deterrence to critical infrastructure/key resource protection by considering cognitive biases. These biases include what we call “information obfuscation bias” and “prospect bias”, the latter inspired by Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory. We show how quantifiable deterrence effectiveness and resulting


Opportunities in Crisis and Catastrophe: The Issue-Attention Cycle and Political Reality

Christopher M. Kimrey Abstract Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. The political attention an issue does receive may or may not be sufficient to resolve the emergent problem, and in many cases may be an overreactive auto-response dictated by public opinion and issue salience. This study examines


The Ultra-Marathoners of Human Smuggling: How to Combat the Dark Networks that Can Move Terrorists over American Land Borders

Todd Bensman Abstract National legislation requires America’s homeland security agencies to disrupt transnational human smuggling organizations capable of transporting terrorist travelers to all U.S. borders. Federal agencies have responded with programs targeting extreme-distance human smuggling networks that transport higher-risk immigrants known as special interest aliens (SIAs) from some 35 “countries of interest” in the Middle


Questioning the Criticality of Critical Infrastructure: A Case Study Analysis

David Riedman Abstract The Department of Homeland Security holds the statutory mission to protect the nation’s critical infrastructure which is composed of nationally significant systems and assets. The loss of this infrastructure would result in debilitating consequences to the safety and security of the United States. Based on a meta-analysis of government policies, the current


Applying the Economic, Homeland and National Security Analysis Framework

by Bijan Karimi Abstract In “Security and Prosperity: Reexamining the Relationship between Economic, Homeland and National Security” I used an analytical framework to identify key components of the Economic, Homeland and National Security relationship, explore their connection in the literature and the real world, and then identify the impact of ‘metamorphic forces’ that further shaped


What is NORAD’s Role in Military Cyber Attack Warning?

by Randall DeGering Abstract For more than fifty years, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has been responsible for conducting aerospace warning and control missions for the defense of North America. In accomplishing those operations, Commander NORAD is responsible for making the official warning to both the president of the United States and the prime


The Fortress Problem

Jack Sheldon Anderson Abstract Fortresses do not usually fail well. When they rely on robustness or complication, positions of strength are only tolerant of stress up to a defined point or of a certain character. For a fortification that fails to adapt, centralization—even of strength—presents a surprising liability. Fortresses concentrate risk. This paper considers the


Halting Global Pandemics via the Commercial Air Route Network

by Ted G. Lewis Abstract How can a pandemic like SARS be halted in the modern age of air travel? This article argues that the classical mathematical models of epidemics are inadequate for describing the impact of air travel on the spread of contagions like SARS. Instead, the author proposes a modern model that incorporates

Notes from the Editor (Volume XII)

Download the full issue December 2016 The December 2016 issue contains an essay calling for the creation of an Emergency Management historical archive at FEMA, an essay examining the homeland security threats posed by the advent of 3-D printing technology, and a research article which makes the case for the tiered response pyramid approach to

Connections Among Communities: Preventing Radicalization and Violent Extremism Through Social Network Analysis (SNA) in the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Framework

Katrina Woodhams EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the September 11 attacks, the United States alone has experienced a significant increase in violent extremist attacks motivated through social networks. In this environment of social complexity, we see differences in communities at risk to this threat. This thesis takes a new approach and examines the concept of Social Network

The Impact of ‘Duty to Warn’ on Countering Violent Extremism Diversion and Intervention Programs

Michael Ward EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the threats of homegrown violent extremists have increasingly become a reality, the federal government has created a countering violent extremism (CVE) program to fill the pre-criminal space. Elements of the CVE program are designed to add the missing preventative pieces to traditional methods. The four main parts of the U.S.