The Journal of the NPS Center for Homeland Defense and Security

Volume XI - 2015


Volume X - 2014




Notes from the Editor (Volume XI)

September 2015 The September 2015 issue of Homeland Security Affairs features a research article which examines the threat posed by novel pandemic viruses and which recommends treatment options for states preparing to deal with the onset of such viruses. Also featured in this issue is a research article which uses advanced statistical methods to identify […]

Surviving the ‘Storm’: Expanding Public Health’s Capabilities in Response to the Increasing Threats Posed by Novel, Pandemic Strain Viruses

Daniel P. Mackie and Anke Richter ABSTRACT:  The recent emergence of two separate outbreaks of two new viruses has generated renewed interest in the threat of pandemics. For a significant portion of the total fatalities associated with these infections the cause of death was due to an over-reaction of an infected body’s immune system. This research […]

Identifying Security Checkpoint Locations to Protect the Major U.S. Urban Areas

Daniel M. Watkins, Leticia Cuéllar, Deborah A. Kubicek, Erick Rodriguez, Phillip D. Stroud ABSTRACT: Transit networks are integral to the economy and to society, but at the same time they could allow terrorists to transport weapons of mass destruction into any city. Road networks are especially vulnerable, because they lack natural checkpoints unlike air networks […]

Book Review: A Practitioner’s Way Forward: Terrorism Analysis by David Brannan, Kristin Darken, and Anders Strindberg (Salinas, CA: Agile Press, 2014)

Reviewed by Erik J. Dahl SUGGESTED CITATION: Dahl, Erik. “Book Review: A Practitioner’s Way Forward: Terrorism Analysis” by David Brannan, Kristen Darken, and Anders Strindberg. (Salinas: Agile Press,  2014).  Homeland Security Affairs 11, Article 9 (September 2015). This short (141 pages) and very readable book is a good introduction to some of the most useful concepts […]

To Save Lives and Property: High Threat Response

Michael Marino, John Delaney, Paul Atwater, Reed Smith ABSTRACT:  The emergency services community must recognize that the world is constantly changing and adjust accordingly. It will have to be more nimble and proactive with its capabilities if it wants to prepare effectively for future threats and respond to atypical emergencies. Over the past several years, […]

UAS on Main Street: Policy and Enforcement at the Local Level

Alison Yakabe DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Office or the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center (NCRIC). ABSTRACT: Due to increasing system sophistication and affordability, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are becoming more popular […]

The Continued Relevance of the November, 2008 Mumbai Terrorist Attack: Countering New Attacks With Old Lessons

 Shahrzad Rizvi and Joshua L. Kelly ABSTRACT: The 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai was characterized by a sense of public confusion and frustration. Throughout the event, the attackers were able to avoid an operationally superior counterterrorism force and for four consecutive days managed to spread terror in India’s most populous city. One of the main […]

Measuring the Deterrence Value of Securing Maritime Supply Chains against WMD Transfer and Measuring Subsequent WMD Risk Reduction

Eric Taquechel, Ian Hollan, and Ted Lewis ABSTRACT:  We propose a methodology to analyze the risk of an adversary exploiting the maritime supply chain by smuggling a WMD in a container. We call this risk “WMD transfer risk”. We describe an extension of an existing modeling/simulation tool wherein we show how to quantify the deterrence […]

A Cautionary Note on Qualitative Risk Ranking of Homeland Security Threats

Daniel J. Rozell ABSTRACT: Qualitative risk ranking systems are often used to assess homeland security threats due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. However, their appropriate use is limited by subtle common underlying difficulties that render them inconsistent with quantitative risk assessments. A better way to assess homeland security threats is to use simple fully quantitative […]

Resilience Redux: Buzzword or Basis for Homeland Security

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: Since 9/11, resilience, a term used widely in many disciplines, has occupied a place in homeland security policy and programs. Peaking in importance as the last decade ended, resilience has begun to retreat as an official driver of U.S. homeland security strategy. Preparedness, which can yield resilience as one of its outcomes, […]

Notes from the Editor (Vol. X)

June 2014 Two essays publishing this month expand the debate over the emergency response aspect of homeland security. Mac Kemp argues that emergency medical services are a vital component of homeland security and as such the role of EMS needs to be expanded. In “EMS and Homeland Security” he recommends five ways in which EMS […]

Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007)

Matthew Magolan ABSTRACT: Matthew Magolan reviews the book, The Siege of Mecca, by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007) SUGGESTED CITATION: Magolan, Matthew. “Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 7 (June 2014). The terrorist siege of the Grand Mosque at Mecca in […]

Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014)

Robert J. Bunker ABSTRACT: Robert J. Bunker reviews the book, Border Security, by James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg. (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014) SUGGESTED CITATION: Bunker, Robert J.. “Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 6 (June […]

EMS and Homeland Security

Mac Kemp ABSTRACT: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) is a vital partner in everyday emergency response and in homeland security. To date EMS has not been included in most homeland security activities and EMS needs to expand its role in this enterprise. EMS should play a greater role in disaster response, recovery, intelligence gathering, fusion centers, […]

Leveraging Emergency Notification Alerts

Michael Leiva ABSTRACT: This essay argues for the importance of either creating a new alert system or changing the criteria of the current Emergency Alert System. Such an alert system is critical in assisting emergency managers and law enforcement personnel with communicating safety and security concerns. To use the current system, local and state government […]

Preparedness Revisited: W(h)ither PPD-8?

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: The most important purpose of Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-8) on national preparedness is to establish a foundation that can be adapted to and utilized by stakeholders of all kinds and at all public and private levels. PPD-8 appeared somewhat abruptly on the scene, essentially replacing Homeland Security Policy Directive (HSPD-8), which […]

Hybrid Targeted Violence: Challenging Conventional “Active Shooter” Response Strategies

Tracy L. Frazzano and G. Matthew Snyder ABSTRACT: Hybrid Targeted Violence (HTV) is defined as an intentional use of force to cause physical injury or death to a specifically identified population using multifaceted conventional weapons and tactics. This article introduces the HTV concept to challenge first responders to prepare for violent “hybrid” multi-threat incidents. These […]

Towards a Unified Homeland Security Strategy: An Asset Vulnerability Model

Richard White ABSTRACT: The 2013 National Infrastructure Protection Plan represents the latest attempt to rectify a faltering program that has suffered from the absence of a viable risk measure. This article introduces an Asset Vulnerability Model (AVM) to overcome recognized challenges and provide strategic direction in the form of (1) baseline analysis, (2) cost-benefit analysis, […]

Web Tutorial: Risk Methods and Models

Dr. Ted Lewis gives a Web Tutorial on Risk Methods and Models.  See the entire Tutorial or first watch the introduction.

A Case Study in the Identification of Critical Factors Leading to Successful Implementation of the Hospital Incident Command System

Lisa Schoenthal EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) is a system of incident management that applies the principles of the Incident Command System (ICS) to hospitals. ICS is an organizational and multi-organizational management system developed in the 1970s by California’s FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California Organized for Potential Emergencies), a working partnership […]

Homeland Security: What Are The Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Local Homeland Security Organizational Structures?

William Mark Fitzpatrick EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This thesis examines three different types of homeland security organizational structures currently being used in the Metro Atlanta, GA area and shows the advantages and disadvantages of each structure. The first structure is the law enforcement homeland security entity. This structure is based within a police department with most personnel […]

Lessons From Fukushima: Relocation and Recovery from Nuclear Catastrophe

Gerilee Wohlschlegel Bennett EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nana korobi ya oki—Fall seven times, stand up eight. —Japanese proverb INTRODUCTION Four years later, Japan is still struggling to recover from the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear plant meltdown that struck March 11, 2011. Any one of these disasters would have challenged seasoned leaders with a well-designed […]

Personal Preparedness in America: The Needle is Broken

Nancy J. Dragani EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. —Albert Einstein Every day, somewhere in the United States, someone is recovering from a disaster. While the number of declared disasters dropped in 2014 to 45 presidential declarations and six federal emergencies (Federal Emergency Management […]

Entropy and Self Organization: An Open System Approach to the Origins of Homeland Security Threats

Thomas Kirwan Dobson EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Homeland security is a relatively new concept.1 There is currently not a single definition of homeland security agreed upon by academics and practitioners at the federal, state, and local levels.2 However, homeland security is operationally defined by the practices of the Department of Homeland Security and state and local governments.3 […]

Policy Options Analysis and the National Fire Operations Reporting System

Michael A. McAdams EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Results This thesis reviews the national fire service regulation, standards, and practices that define the fire data incident collection processes. Reviewing the documents grounds the criteria that define the availability of fire department resources that are ready and able to respond to a structure fire incident and the capability of […]

Recommendation for a National Standard for Tactical Emergency Casualty Care and Israeli Hospital Trauma Protocols for the United States

Robert L. Kierstead EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Active shootings and terrorist attacks have increased at an alarming rate in recent years in the United States. According to research conducted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Texas State University, between 2000 and 2013, 486 people were killed and another 557 were wounded in 160 separate active […]

Unauthorized Disclosure: Can Behavioral Indicators Help Predict Who Will Commit Unauthorized Disclosure of Classified National Security Information

Karen Elizabeth Sims EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Federal government security-cleared personnel have been disclosing federal government classified national security information, whether to a foreign government or the United States media, at an increasing rate since the 1980s. Can common personal or psychological characteristics or motivations be identified from historical cases that could indicate the likelihood of a […]

Preempting Mass Murder: Improving Law Enforcement Risk Assessments of Persons with Mental Illness

John D. Milby EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Law enforcement officers are regularly called upon to respond to assist mentally ill persons in crisis; some experts estimate that as many as 20 percent of all law enforcement calls for service involve persons with a mental illness.[1] In the majority of communities across the country, law enforcement is the […]

Reducing Homeland Insecurities: Ending Abuse of the Asylum and Credible Fear Program

Anja Freudenthal EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the summer of 2012, a major shift began in the number of undocumented individuals crossing from the Mexican border into the United States. While the number of individuals apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (hereafter referred to simply as CBP) and detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (hereafter […]

Strategic Improvements to TSA SPOT Program

Brent A. Cotton EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) Screening Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) program is under intense scrutiny by Congress, and in danger of losing funding. Recent reports by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) have identified several areas for operational […]

Airmanship on the Ground: How the Aviation Industry Can Fundamentally Change The Way First Responders Manage Complex Emergencies

  Ryan Fields-Spack EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Problem Statement/Topic In general, police and fire departments face three types of emergencies today. Two types encompass the normal “everyday” emergency. These are emergencies where either police are in charge or those where fire officers are in charge. However, there are emergencies that manifest themselves in a wholly different manner—the […]

Systems Fragility: The Sociology of Chaos

Lori Hodges EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last decade, the United States alone has averaged at least one large-scale crisis or extreme event per year. In this environment of complex disasters, we see differences in how communities respond and recover. In some of these disasters, the community bands together and recovers faster and to be stronger […]

Winning the Hearts and Minds: Improving U.S. Counter-Radicalization Efforts Through a Study of The United Kingdom’s PREVENT program

Romeo B. Lavarias EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Warfare in the 21st century has matured to the point where military technology and force are no longer the keys to victory. Parties in conflict during the twentieth century had begun to realize that success in war meant winning the “hearts and minds” of the people and, to an extent, […]

A Tribute to Alis Gumbiner

This volume of Homeland Security Affairs and the Journal’s new online format is dedicated to its long-time managing editor Alis Gumbiner.  This past fall, Alis stepped down after nine years at the helm.  Alis was instrumental in the Journal’s early years in taking the initial vision and making it a reality.  She worked her magic […]

Community Oriented Counterterrorism: Incorporating National Homeland Security Mandates into the Local Community Policing Philosophy

Kenith Roland Adcox EXECUTIVE SUMMARY For over three decades, community policing has proven itself to be an effective tool to address crime and disorder within local communities.[1] Since 9/11, however, many local police agencies have been chipping away at community policing programs in order to meet new homeland security responsibilities. The concern is that sidestepping […]

People First Homeland Security: Recalibrating for Community Collaboration & Engagement within a Homeland Security Ecosystem

Angela Yvonne English EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the creation of a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) in 2002, the practice of homeland security has been constructed around a top-down system, reactive in nature, based primarily on responding to terrorist acts and natural disasters. When security becomes a reactive enterprise, pursued only after threats become manifest, the […]

Silent Warning: Understanding the National Terrorism Advisory System

Roy B. Brush EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Terrorism warning systems provide warnings for internal (organizational or for official decision makers) and external (other partner organizations or the public) categories of constituents. They must support resolution of the decision maker’s dilemma and balance between the need to warn people in danger from terrorism with the need to maintain […]

TSA Behavior Detection: Changing with the Times

Brent A. Cotton EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) Screening Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) program is under intense scrutiny by Congress, and in danger of losing funding. Recent reports by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) have identified several areas for operational […]

The Major Crimes Task Force-Afghanistan: A Case Study and Examination of Implications for Future FBI Capacity Building Programs

Stephen A. Cyrus EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CURRENT PROBLEM SPACE The threat to the United States (U.S.) homeland and U.S. interests abroad posed by international terrorism has changed dramatically since the United States started its global war on terror (GWOT) in response to the attacks of September 11, 2001. While U.S. and international efforts in support […]