The Journal of the NPS Center for Homeland Defense and Security

Volume XI - 2015


Volume X - 2014




Notes from the Editor (Volume XI)

December 2015 The December 2015 issue of Homeland Security Affairs features an essay which develops a methodology for the comparative assessment of homeland security risks and hazards. In “Assessing Homeland Security Risks: A Comparative Assessment of 10 Hazards”, Russell Lundberg and Henry Willis examine the challenges associated with comparative risk assessment in homeland security. In […]

Assessing Homeland Security Risks: A Comparative Risk Assessment of 10 Hazards

Russell Lundberg and Henry Willis ABSTRACT:  The National Academy of Sciences recommended that the Department of Homeland Security use methods of qualitative comparative risk assessment as part of its approach to strategic planning. To provide insight into how this can be done, this paper examines a set of ten homeland security risks– including natural disasters, terrorist […]

Surviving the ‘Storm’: Expanding Public Health’s Capabilities in Response to the Increasing Threats Posed by Novel, Pandemic Strain Viruses

Daniel P. Mackie and Anke Richter ABSTRACT:  The recent emergence of two separate outbreaks of two new viruses has generated renewed interest in the threat of pandemics. For a significant portion of the total fatalities associated with these infections the cause of death was due to an over-reaction of an infected body’s immune system. This research […]

Identifying Security Checkpoint Locations to Protect the Major U.S. Urban Areas

Daniel M. Watkins, Leticia Cuéllar, Deborah A. Kubicek, Erick Rodriguez, Phillip D. Stroud ABSTRACT: Transit networks are integral to the economy and to society, but at the same time they could allow terrorists to transport weapons of mass destruction into any city. Road networks are especially vulnerable, because they lack natural checkpoints unlike air networks […]

Book Review: A Practitioner’s Way Forward: Terrorism Analysis by David Brannan, Kristin Darken, and Anders Strindberg (Salinas, CA: Agile Press, 2014)

Reviewed by Erik J. Dahl SUGGESTED CITATION: Dahl, Erik. “Book Review: A Practitioner’s Way Forward: Terrorism Analysis” by David Brannan, Kristen Darken, and Anders Strindberg. (Salinas: Agile Press,  2014).  Homeland Security Affairs 11, Article 9 (September 2015). This short (141 pages) and very readable book is a good introduction to some of the most useful concepts […]

To Save Lives and Property: High Threat Response

Michael Marino, John Delaney, Paul Atwater, Reed Smith ABSTRACT:  The emergency services community must recognize that the world is constantly changing and adjust accordingly. It will have to be more nimble and proactive with its capabilities if it wants to prepare effectively for future threats and respond to atypical emergencies. Over the past several years, […]

UAS on Main Street: Policy and Enforcement at the Local Level

Alison Yakabe DISCLAIMER: The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the San Mateo County Sheriff’s Office or the Northern California Regional Intelligence Center (NCRIC). ABSTRACT: Due to increasing system sophistication and affordability, unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are becoming more popular […]

The Continued Relevance of the November, 2008 Mumbai Terrorist Attack: Countering New Attacks With Old Lessons

 Shahrzad Rizvi and Joshua L. Kelly ABSTRACT: The 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai was characterized by a sense of public confusion and frustration. Throughout the event, the attackers were able to avoid an operationally superior counterterrorism force and for four consecutive days managed to spread terror in India’s most populous city. One of the main […]

Measuring the Deterrence Value of Securing Maritime Supply Chains against WMD Transfer and Measuring Subsequent WMD Risk Reduction

Eric Taquechel, Ian Hollan, and Ted Lewis ABSTRACT:  We propose a methodology to analyze the risk of an adversary exploiting the maritime supply chain by smuggling a WMD in a container. We call this risk “WMD transfer risk”. We describe an extension of an existing modeling/simulation tool wherein we show how to quantify the deterrence […]

A Cautionary Note on Qualitative Risk Ranking of Homeland Security Threats

Daniel J. Rozell ABSTRACT: Qualitative risk ranking systems are often used to assess homeland security threats due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. However, their appropriate use is limited by subtle common underlying difficulties that render them inconsistent with quantitative risk assessments. A better way to assess homeland security threats is to use simple fully quantitative […]

Resilience Redux: Buzzword or Basis for Homeland Security

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: Since 9/11, resilience, a term used widely in many disciplines, has occupied a place in homeland security policy and programs. Peaking in importance as the last decade ended, resilience has begun to retreat as an official driver of U.S. homeland security strategy. Preparedness, which can yield resilience as one of its outcomes, […]

Notes from the Editor (Vol. X)

June 2014 Two essays publishing this month expand the debate over the emergency response aspect of homeland security. Mac Kemp argues that emergency medical services are a vital component of homeland security and as such the role of EMS needs to be expanded. In “EMS and Homeland Security” he recommends five ways in which EMS […]

Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007)

Matthew Magolan ABSTRACT: Matthew Magolan reviews the book, The Siege of Mecca, by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007) SUGGESTED CITATION: Magolan, Matthew. “Book Review: The Siege of Mecca by Yaroslav Trofimov (New York: Doubleday, 2007).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 7 (June 2014). The terrorist siege of the Grand Mosque at Mecca in […]

Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014)

Robert J. Bunker ABSTRACT: Robert J. Bunker reviews the book, Border Security, by James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg. (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014) SUGGESTED CITATION: Bunker, Robert J.. “Book Review: James Phelps, Jeff Dailey, and Monica Koenigsberg, Border Security (Durham, NC: Carolina Academic Press, 2014).” Homeland Security Affairs 10, Article 6 (June […]

EMS and Homeland Security

Mac Kemp ABSTRACT: Emergency Medical Services (EMS) is a vital partner in everyday emergency response and in homeland security. To date EMS has not been included in most homeland security activities and EMS needs to expand its role in this enterprise. EMS should play a greater role in disaster response, recovery, intelligence gathering, fusion centers, […]

Leveraging Emergency Notification Alerts

Michael Leiva ABSTRACT: This essay argues for the importance of either creating a new alert system or changing the criteria of the current Emergency Alert System. Such an alert system is critical in assisting emergency managers and law enforcement personnel with communicating safety and security concerns. To use the current system, local and state government […]

Preparedness Revisited: W(h)ither PPD-8?

Jerome H. Kahan ABSTRACT: The most important purpose of Presidential Policy Directive (PPD-8) on national preparedness is to establish a foundation that can be adapted to and utilized by stakeholders of all kinds and at all public and private levels. PPD-8 appeared somewhat abruptly on the scene, essentially replacing Homeland Security Policy Directive (HSPD-8), which […]

Hybrid Targeted Violence: Challenging Conventional “Active Shooter” Response Strategies

Tracy L. Frazzano and G. Matthew Snyder ABSTRACT: Hybrid Targeted Violence (HTV) is defined as an intentional use of force to cause physical injury or death to a specifically identified population using multifaceted conventional weapons and tactics. This article introduces the HTV concept to challenge first responders to prepare for violent “hybrid” multi-threat incidents. These […]

Towards a Unified Homeland Security Strategy: An Asset Vulnerability Model

Richard White ABSTRACT: The 2013 National Infrastructure Protection Plan represents the latest attempt to rectify a faltering program that has suffered from the absence of a viable risk measure. This article introduces an Asset Vulnerability Model (AVM) to overcome recognized challenges and provide strategic direction in the form of (1) baseline analysis, (2) cost-benefit analysis, […]

Web Tutorial: Risk Methods and Models

Dr. Ted Lewis gives a Web Tutorial on Risk Methods and Models.  See the entire Tutorial or first watch the introduction.

Learning to See the Opportunities in Crises and Catastrophe: A Decision Maker’s Guide to the Issue-Attention Cycle

Christopher Kimrey EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. Stakeholders and special interest groups, galvanized by widespread concern and common purpose hasten policy—such was the case in the creation of a homeland security organization after September 11, 2001. In other cases, such emerging problems only […]

Killing Barney Fife: Law Enforcement’s Socially Constructed Perception of Violence and Its Influence on Police Militarization

Matthew Hanley EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   At various times in American history, the topic of police militarization has surfaced. The most recent event to spark debate about the issue was the August 9, 2014 shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Missouri. The media portrayal of the aggressive police response to the civil disobedience and rioting that […]

Solving Homeland Security’s Wicked Problems: a Design Thinking Approach

Kristin Wyckoff EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   The Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Technology Directorate (DHS S&T) requires a consistent yet flexible approach to address wicked problems. While design thinking can be applied to any problem, it lends itself to “wicked problems” that cannot be definitively described or solved.[1] Wicked problems require a multidisciplinary approach and […]

How Critical is Critical Infrastructure?

David Riedman Executive Summary     Origin of the Research Question The owner of a commercial office building can contact the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and request that a federal representative tour the building to identify vulnerabilities from terrorism. Information about the physical attributes of the facility is entered into a computer program to […]

The Homeland Security Enterprise and Public Works: Improving the Relationship

Jason Lappi Executive Summary     The homeland security enterprise (HSE) is a comparatively new term added to the government’s list of acronyms following the attacks on 9/11. In broad terms, the HSE is comprised of many institutions and agencies that attempt to support the United States through numerous national mission spaces. These mission spaces […]

The Millennial Generation as an Insider Threat: High Risk or Over Hyped?

David Fisher EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   This thesis asks if a specific generation, Millennials, is collectively more likely to possess the characteristics and traits of an insider threat than the Baby Boomers or Generation X (Gen X) generations. For the purposes of this study, insider threat it is defined as “people who maliciously and deliberately used […]

Stemming the Growth: Exploring the Risk Factors in Group Membership in Domestic Street Gangs and Foreign Terrorist Organizations

Daniel Dooley EXECUTIVE SUMMARY One way to avoid terrorist attacks is to prevent individuals from joining terrorist organizations in the first place. Yet, despite law enforcement’s best efforts, people continue to join terrorist organizations at alarming rates. A new deterrence strategy is sorely needed. In 2015, the U.S. government convened for a three-day summit at […]

The Role of North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) in Military Cyber Attack Warning

Randall DeGering EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since 1958, North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has a proven history of adapting and evolving to meet changing military defense challenges using new technology—from its early years providing ground-based radar warning of approaching Soviet bombers, to ground-based radar warning of in-bound Soviet ICBMS, to satellite-based warning of any missile launch […]

Serious Games in FEMA Regional Response Coordination Center Training and Exercises

Randy Brawley EXECUTIVE SUMMARY By all accounts, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) was not prepared for the overwhelming nature and catastrophic effects of Hurricane Katrina. Despite the lessons learned in Katrina, when Hurricane Sandy struck, only 47% of FEMA’s identified required positions were filled by qualified personnel, 25% were filled by trainees, and 28% were […]

Risk Unbound: Threat, Catastrophe, and the End of Homeland Security

Jacob Anderson EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   Each of us is all the sums he has not counted…the seed of our destruction will blossom in the desert, the alexin of our cure grows by a mountain rock —Thomas Wolfe[1]   The staircases in medieval castles often spiraled upward clockwise around a central newel. The reasoning for this […]

A Case Study in the Identification of Critical Factors Leading to Successful Implementation of the Hospital Incident Command System

Lisa Schoenthal EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction The Hospital Incident Command System (HICS) is a system of incident management that applies the principles of the Incident Command System (ICS) to hospitals. ICS is an organizational and multi-organizational management system developed in the 1970s by California’s FIRESCOPE (Firefighting Resources of California Organized for Potential Emergencies), a working partnership […]

Homeland Security: What Are The Advantages and Disadvantages of Different Local Homeland Security Organizational Structures?

William Mark Fitzpatrick EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This thesis examines three different types of homeland security organizational structures currently being used in the Metro Atlanta, GA area and shows the advantages and disadvantages of each structure. The first structure is the law enforcement homeland security entity. This structure is based within a police department with most personnel […]

Lessons From Fukushima: Relocation and Recovery from Nuclear Catastrophe

Gerilee Wohlschlegel Bennett EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Nana korobi ya oki—Fall seven times, stand up eight. —Japanese proverb INTRODUCTION Four years later, Japan is still struggling to recover from the triple disaster of earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear plant meltdown that struck March 11, 2011. Any one of these disasters would have challenged seasoned leaders with a well-designed […]

Personal Preparedness in America: The Needle is Broken

Nancy J. Dragani EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Definition of Insanity: Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. —Albert Einstein Every day, somewhere in the United States, someone is recovering from a disaster. While the number of declared disasters dropped in 2014 to 45 presidential declarations and six federal emergencies (Federal Emergency Management […]

Entropy and Self Organization: An Open System Approach to the Origins of Homeland Security Threats

Thomas Kirwan Dobson EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Homeland security is a relatively new concept.1 There is currently not a single definition of homeland security agreed upon by academics and practitioners at the federal, state, and local levels.2 However, homeland security is operationally defined by the practices of the Department of Homeland Security and state and local governments.3 […]

Policy Options Analysis and the National Fire Operations Reporting System

Michael A. McAdams EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Results This thesis reviews the national fire service regulation, standards, and practices that define the fire data incident collection processes. Reviewing the documents grounds the criteria that define the availability of fire department resources that are ready and able to respond to a structure fire incident and the capability of […]

Recommendation for a National Standard for Tactical Emergency Casualty Care and Israeli Hospital Trauma Protocols for the United States

Robert L. Kierstead EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Active shootings and terrorist attacks have increased at an alarming rate in recent years in the United States. According to research conducted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Texas State University, between 2000 and 2013, 486 people were killed and another 557 were wounded in 160 separate active […]

Unauthorized Disclosure: Can Behavioral Indicators Help Predict Who Will Commit Unauthorized Disclosure of Classified National Security Information

Karen Elizabeth Sims EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Federal government security-cleared personnel have been disclosing federal government classified national security information, whether to a foreign government or the United States media, at an increasing rate since the 1980s. Can common personal or psychological characteristics or motivations be identified from historical cases that could indicate the likelihood of a […]

Preempting Mass Murder: Improving Law Enforcement Risk Assessments of Persons with Mental Illness

John D. Milby EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Law enforcement officers are regularly called upon to respond to assist mentally ill persons in crisis; some experts estimate that as many as 20 percent of all law enforcement calls for service involve persons with a mental illness.[1] In the majority of communities across the country, law enforcement is the […]

Reducing Homeland Insecurities: Ending Abuse of the Asylum and Credible Fear Program

Anja Freudenthal EXECUTIVE SUMMARY During the summer of 2012, a major shift began in the number of undocumented individuals crossing from the Mexican border into the United States. While the number of individuals apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (hereafter referred to simply as CBP) and detained by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (hereafter […]

Strategic Improvements to TSA SPOT Program

Brent A. Cotton EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Transportation Security Administration’s (TSA) Screening Passengers by Observation Techniques (SPOT) program is under intense scrutiny by Congress, and in danger of losing funding. Recent reports by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Inspector General (OIG) have identified several areas for operational […]

Airmanship on the Ground: How the Aviation Industry Can Fundamentally Change The Way First Responders Manage Complex Emergencies

  Ryan Fields-Spack EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Problem Statement/Topic In general, police and fire departments face three types of emergencies today. Two types encompass the normal “everyday” emergency. These are emergencies where either police are in charge or those where fire officers are in charge. However, there are emergencies that manifest themselves in a wholly different manner—the […]

Systems Fragility: The Sociology of Chaos

Lori Hodges EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Over the last decade, the United States alone has averaged at least one large-scale crisis or extreme event per year. In this environment of complex disasters, we see differences in how communities respond and recover. In some of these disasters, the community bands together and recovers faster and to be stronger […]

Winning the Hearts and Minds: Improving U.S. Counter-Radicalization Efforts Through a Study of The United Kingdom’s PREVENT program

Romeo B. Lavarias EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Warfare in the 21st century has matured to the point where military technology and force are no longer the keys to victory. Parties in conflict during the twentieth century had begun to realize that success in war meant winning the “hearts and minds” of the people and, to an extent, […]