Systems Fragility: The Sociology of Chaos

– Executive Summary –

Over the last decade, the United States alone has averaged at least one large-scale crisis or extreme event per year. In this environment of complex disasters, we see differences in how communities respond and recover. In some of these disasters, the community bands together and recovers faster and to be stronger than before. In other cases, the disaster cripples the community, leaving it for years to come in ruins, socially, politically, and economically.

This thesis takes a new approach to the study of community response and recovery. It examines the concept of community fragility in emergency management from a systems perspective based on research in fields outside emergency management.

The assertion is that 1) there is a gap in the current emergency management literature and policies with regard to community fragility and what causes systems to fail, and 2) there should be a way to qualitatively measure fragility as an emergency management concept. Therefore, two questions are studied. The first is whether community fragility can be qualitatively measured, and the second is whether this concept has value in the emergency management field.

This research uses a multi-method approach to answer these questions. Using literature that addresses fragility in four areas of complex systems—ecosystems, social systems, socio-technical systems, and complex adaptive systems—we create a theoretical framework focused on the emergency management field. Using multi-case analysis, this framework is refined to include factors affecting community fragility within the emergency management field. The findings of the case studies allowed for the development of a community fragility causal prediction model illustrating how community fragility factors can be used in the emergency management field to not only improve overall outcomes after disaster but to also build stronger systems and communities in preparation for future disasters.

Three themes were developed from an examination of the research: connectedness, stability, and sustainability. Recent trends have shown an increase in focus upon resilient communities, but as shown in this research, resiliency is merely one factor of the whole. Along with resiliency, there are factors that affect the sustainability of a community. Additionally, the connections between community members, public officials, and emergency management practitioners play a role as well as the overall stability of the community before the disaster strikes. This could explain why plans and procedures so often fail despite the best efforts of everyone involved—they were looking through a lens that was too small.

Each one of the case studies chosen for this research illustrated key concepts that are critical to emergency management when looking into the future. The first is the understanding that our disaster landscape is not the same as it was when the discipline of crisis management emerged in the 1950s and 1960s. At that time, crisis managers looked at a specific problem or a potential disturbance within a system. The aim was the same—to stop a cascading event from occurring. Managers assumed, however, that the triggering event would be stable and recognizable. With the increase in complexity in the twenty-first century, along with our highly interdependent global network, we have entered into a new era where we face greater instability and less recognizable problems.

This research illustrates this new environment by outlining various factors of fragility from a systems perspective. The research does not end at risk and vulnerability assessments. Instead, it recognizes the importance of these factors along with the importance of social structure of a community, the leaders who shape policy, the interdependencies of our critical infrastructure, the structure of emergency management systems, and the people who put it all together. The concept of fragility alone is significant to the field of homeland security and emergency management. While studied in several other disciplines and fields, our hope is that this important idea will gain momentum in the area of disaster management. Doing so will cause a change in focus. Instead of looking merely at how to reduce a threat, the inclusion of fragility allows emergency managers to turn around and see the connections between multiple parts and pieces of the whole. Managers may plan everything out well and execute as expected, only to see the event unravel and fail. The focus on fragility brings to light areas previously hidden that explain these failures and provide a roadmap to success in the future.

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