Notes from the Editor

The December 2024 Issue of Homeland Security Affairs examines significant developments in the technological and human dimensions of security challenges facing our nation. The five articles in this issue highlight the interplay between emerging analytical capabilities and evolving security threats and offer insights into defensive and offensive adaptations in contemporary security operations. Read more.

Homeland Security Affairs

Homeland Security Affairs

Hurricane Katrina as a Predictable Surprise

The concept of predictable surprises, i.e. failures to take preventative action in the face of known threats, was outlined by Max Bazerman and Michael Watkins in their book by the same name. This paper discusses predictable surprises as primarily organizational events that result from failure of organizational processes to support surprise-avoidance rather than surprise-conducive actions by individual members.

By Larry Irons

Hurricane Katrina as a Predictable Surprise

Transforming Border Security: Prevention First

The events of September 11, 2001 caused the nation’s leaders to accelerate existing border programs aimed at prevention. Traditionally, the “prevention” of border violations has involved interdiction (physically impeding any incursion while it is occurring), preemption (through routine screening to intercept illegal shipments, weapons, people, or other illicit cargo), and deterrence (where an action taken means a potential violator does not plan or even attempt an illegal entry).

By Robert Bach

Transforming Border Security: Prevention First

Community Policing as the Primary Prevention Strategy for Homeland Security at the Local Law Enforcement Level

Adoption of the “homeland-policing” model presented in this article suggests that the community policing model serves as a solid framework for the development of an effective prevention strategy.

By Jose Docobo

Community Policing as the Primary Prevention Strategy for Homeland Security at the Local Law Enforcement Level

Building a Contingency Menu: Using Capabilities-Based Planning for Homeland Defense and Homeland Security

Terrorist threat actors are both cunning and adaptive, relying on surprise to overcome security measures. For this reason, military and security planners must embrace a more flexible, comprehensive, and comprehensible approach to contingency planning – a method based on neither threats nor scenarios exclusively, but rather on integrating these two approaches into a planning process based on capabilities.

By Thomas Goss

Building a Contingency Menu: Using Capabilities-Based Planning for Homeland Defense and Homeland Security

Measuring Prevention

How do we know if prevention is working? Not only is the measurement of prevention activities possible, the methodologies of “how” to measure already exist in numerous processes. Additionally, the definitions of “what” to measure have been both experienced and discussed.

By Glen Woodbury

Measuring Prevention

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