How to Quantify Deterrence and Reduce Critical Infrastructure Risk

Eric F. Taquechel and Ted G. Lewis ABSTRACT: We propose a definition of critical infrastructure deterrence and develop a methodology to explicitly quantify the deterrent effects of critical infrastructure security strategies. We leverage historical work on analyzing deterrence, game theory and utility theory. Our methodology quantifies deterrence as the extent to which an attacker’s expected

A Maritime Threat Assessment of Sea Based Criminal Organizations and Terrorist Operations

Terrance G. Lichtenwald, Mara H. Steinhour, and Frank S. Perri ABSTRACT: This article reviews the United States Department of Defense, law enforcement, and intelligence agencies’ use of the Maritime Strategic Doctrine and the Drug Trafficking Vessel Interdiction Act to combat drug smuggling vessels and boats during counter-drug smuggling operations. Threat analysis, using strategic warning indicators,

Strengthening the Value of the National Network of Fusion Centers by Leveraging Specialization: Defining “Centers of Analytical Excellence”

Justin Lewis Abold, Ray Guidetti, and Douglas Keyer ABSTRACT: This article reports on the main findings of a project sponsored by the National Fusion Center Association to more precisely define the term “Centers of Analytic Excellence.” Secretary Janet Napolitano, Department of Homeland Security previously used this term to focus public attention on the analytical component

The Missing Piece of NIMS: Teaching Incident Commanders How to Function in the Edge of Chaos

Cynthia Renaud ABSTRACT: The National Incident Management System (NIMS) has become a subject of controversy, as many practitioners find severe limitations with the system’s field effectiveness. To label NIMS a complete failure and look for a different response tool would be rash and premature. A deeper exploration of NIMS shows that it is very useful

Pandemic Vaccine Distribution Policy for the Twenty-First Century

Tom Russo ABSTRACT: Over this past decade, Congress has responded to the growing threat of bioterrorism and risks to US national security with increased funding for biosecurity and public health preparedness. This has included investment in domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity by the United States government. As a result, a policy of vaccine production self-sufficiency has

Dispensing Mass Prophylaxis — The Search for the Perfect Solution

Sinan Khan and Anke Richter ABSTRACT: Biological agents can be highly contagious and fatal, requiring a timely response to avoid economic loss, loss of life and large-scale panic. Local mass prophylaxis plans are based on the concept of Points of Dispensing (POD). However, there are various challenges that the local health department (LHD) in large

The Next Meltdown? Responding to a Nuclear Accident in the Developing World

James Higgins ABSTRACT: As the twenty-first century begins, an increasing number of developing nations are aggressively pursuing the use of nuclear power as a source of electricity. Much attention within the international security community has been placed on the growth of reactors within the context of nuclear weapons development and nuclear terrorism. A major accident

The All Needs Approach to Emergency Response

Donald A. Donahue, Stephen O. Cunnion, Carey D. Balaban, and Ken Sochats ABSTRACT: For decades, emergency planners have operated either under an approach termed “all hazards,” focusing on the commonalities of catastrophes, or under scenario-specific planning rubrics that aligned actions with the particular cause of the disaster. While each method has its strengths and advocates,

The Power of “the Few”: A Key Strategic Challenge for the Permanently Disrupted High-Tech Homeland Security Environment

Rodrigo Nieto-Gómez ABSTRACT: This article argues for a new organizational approach to homeland security, designed to confront the challenges of a highly disrupted environment in a more efficient way. Initially, it explains how the accelerating pace of innovation creates a set of homeland security challenges that empower small groups or individuals – “the few” –

Application of Social Network Analysis Methods to Quantitatively Assess Exercise Coordination

Yee San Su ABSTRACT: Previous failures in effective, large-scale disaster response (e.g., Hurricane Katrina) are often traced to failures in effective coordination. As evidenced in after-action reports, however, assessments of coordination performance are still largely anecdotal in nature. Network analysis is a possible means to develop quantitative metrics for coordination assessment. In this paper, two