Download the full issue December 2016 The December 2016 issue contains an essay calling for the creation of an Emergency Management historical archive at FEMA, an essay examining the homeland security threats posed by the advent of 3-D printing technology, and a research article which makes the case for the tiered response pyramid approach to…
Volume XII
What Comes Around, Goes Around (and Around and Around): Reviving the Lost History of FEMA and its Importance to Future Disasters
by H. Quinton Lucie Abstract The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) lacks a coherent historical record. Often this results in the agency repeating the mistakes of its past. By creating a comprehensive public record of FEMA and national emergency management efforts over the last half century, FEMA can break its cycle of repeating past failures and…
When Guns and Drugs are Democratized: Potential Technical Solutions to Counter the Negative Consequences of Three Dimensional Printing
by Jonathan Percy Abstract 3-D printer technology will have negative consequences in the form of weapons that cannot be traced, illicit drug manufacture, sabotage, and intellectual property theft. This article poses the following questions. How will society be affected by these changes? How will border security organizations accomplish their missions when illicit guns and drugs no longer…
Tiered Response Pyramid: A System-Wide Approach to Build Response Capability and Surge Capacity
by Joseph W. Pfeifer and Ophelia Roman Abstract Today’s expanding disaster landscape demands crisis managers to configure their organizations to handle a wider range of extreme events. This requires more varied capabilities, capacity and delivery of services. The article proposes that crisis managers must move away from organization-centered planning to a system-wide approach for preparedness.…
Apples to Apples: RAMCAP and Emerging Threats to Lifeline Infrastructure
by Richard White, Randy George, Terrance Boult, and C. Edward Chow Abstract The search for a uniform risk analysis for critical infrastructure protection prompted a look at RAMCAP to see if it accommodates emerging threats from climate change, aging infrastructure, and cybersecurity. This article examines the role of Reference Scenarios in guiding RAMCAP estimations of…
A History of Violence: A Quantitative Analysis of the History of Terrorism in New York City
By Matthew Quinn Abstract In a recent quantitative analysis of the past 40 years of terrorist activity in New York City, the FDNY’s Center for Terrorism and Disaster Preparedness identified several trends in terrorist activity that may have value to future policy formation, both in New York City and in similar municipalities elsewhere. This article…
More Options for Quantifying Deterrence and Reducing Critical Infrastructure Risk: Cognitive Biases
By Eric F. Taquechel & Ted G. Lewis Abstract We expand on the application of quantifiable deterrence to critical infrastructure/key resource protection by considering cognitive biases. These biases include what we call “information obfuscation bias” and “prospect bias”, the latter inspired by Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory. We show how quantifiable deterrence effectiveness and resulting…
Opportunities in Crisis and Catastrophe: The Issue-Attention Cycle and Political Reality
Christopher M. Kimrey Abstract Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. The political attention an issue does receive may or may not be sufficient to resolve the emergent problem, and in many cases may be an overreactive auto-response dictated by public opinion and issue salience. This study examines…
The Ultra-Marathoners of Human Smuggling: How to Combat the Dark Networks that Can Move Terrorists over American Land Borders
Todd Bensman Abstract National legislation requires America’s homeland security agencies to disrupt transnational human smuggling organizations capable of transporting terrorist travelers to all U.S. borders. Federal agencies have responded with programs targeting extreme-distance human smuggling networks that transport higher-risk immigrants known as special interest aliens (SIAs) from some 35 “countries of interest” in the Middle…
Questioning the Criticality of Critical Infrastructure: A Case Study Analysis
David Riedman Abstract The Department of Homeland Security holds the statutory mission to protect the nation’s critical infrastructure which is composed of nationally significant systems and assets. The loss of this infrastructure would result in debilitating consequences to the safety and security of the United States. Based on a meta-analysis of government policies, the current…