Morgan Minor EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the territorial significance once held by the Islamic State continues to deteriorate, Western nations are grappling with how to handle returning foreign fighters. Processing, categorization, and management of returning foreign fighters must be done in a way that reduces the risk of increased radicalization, both within the justice system and…
Countering Violent Extremism
Crowdsourcing Threat Analysis; Applying a “Superforecasting” Methodology to Detection of Homegrown Violence
James Huse EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This thesis examines investigative decision making, cognitive biases, talent sharing, and the relationship between the random nature of lone actor violence and a set of predefined decision-making protocols. Targeted violence presents a paradox for the homeland security enterprise. These single attacker events, whether assassinations, school shootings, or lone wolf terrorist attacks,…
In Bad Faith: The Link Between Religious Conversion & Violent Extremism
Brian Gibson EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Recent studies have found a disproportionate number of converts to Islam are taking part in radical activities as opposed to those born into the faith. Forty percent of those arrested in the United States for activities related to the Islamic State in the Levant (ISIL) are converts to Islam.[1] Only about…
The Cloudy Crystal Ball: Detecting and Disrupting Homegrown Violent Extremism
James Pendley EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Some observers are critical that recent attacks related to homegrown violent extremism (HVE) in the United States have occurred because investigators had information about would-be perpetrators but missed warning signs of imminent violence. Others rightfully contend that absent a crystal ball, some violent attacks will occur despite the best efforts of…
Countering Violent Extremism Policy in The United States: Are CVE Programs in America Effectively Mitigating The Threat of Homegrown Violent Extremism?
Craig Stewart EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In 2014, the United States initiated formal programming to counter violent extremism in three test cities, pursuant to the White House’s countering violent extremism (CVE) strategy outlined in 2011’s Empowering Local Partners to Prevent Violent Extremism in the United States. Since the creation of the pilot program, the Department of Homeland…
Combatting Prejudice: Understanding Media Prejudice Toward Muslims and Advocacy Organizations’ Efforts to Combat It
Jay Teitelbaum EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Prejudice towards Muslim and Sikh Americans continues in America despite advocacy organizations’ efforts to combat it. In fact, the Pew Research Center compiled Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) data that show a 67 percent increase in anti-Muslim hate crime from 2014 to 2015.[1] This violence also spills over to groups, such…
Westerner Radicalization: Rethinking the Psychology of Terrorism
Vernon Pierson EXECUTIVE SUMMARY On June 12, 2016, Omar Mateen entered the Pulse nightclub in Orlando, Florida, and began shooting. During the attack, Mateen paused to call a local television station, make a call to 911, and pledge allegiance to ISIS (the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) on social media. During the calls, he…
Connections Among Communities: Preventing Radicalization and Violent Extremism Through Social Network Analysis (SNA) in the Threat and Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (THIRA) Framework
Katrina Woodhams EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the September 11 attacks, the United States alone has experienced a significant increase in violent extremist attacks motivated through social networks. In this environment of social complexity, we see differences in communities at risk to this threat. This thesis takes a new approach and examines the concept of Social Network…
The Impact of ‘Duty to Warn’ on Countering Violent Extremism Diversion and Intervention Programs
Michael Ward EXECUTIVE SUMMARY As the threats of homegrown violent extremists have increasingly become a reality, the federal government has created a countering violent extremism (CVE) program to fill the pre-criminal space. Elements of the CVE program are designed to add the missing preventative pieces to traditional methods. The four main parts of the U.S.…
Recycled Bricks: Exploring opportunities to reintegrate returning American foreign fighters using existing models.
Edward Scott EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The number of foreign fighters who have traveled to Syria and Iraq between 2011 and 2015—including those from the United States (U.S.)—to join Islamic State (I.S.) and other Islamic foreign fighter groups is unprecedented. The issue for the United States is that since foreign fighter membership peaked in early 2015, it…